Today and coming two days
In 4 to 6 days
In 7 to 9 days
Technical description
Forecasted event: probability of occurrence of adult Japanese beetles (Popillia japonica).
Forecast region: European Continent. Grey areas are expected to be unsuitable to the establishment of the species or imply a high level of uncertainty in the predictions.
Context: The Japanese beetle is a highly problematic invasive species that has recently established in several regions of Europe. To monitor and track this species, experts recommend focusing on its adult phase, which is the most visible and easily identifiable. Our models forecast the probability of adult Japanese beetle occurrence based on preceding environmental conditions, including temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and snow accumulation. These forecasts can guide the timing of actions aimed at identifying potential invasion areas, even in regions or countries where the species has not yet been detected.
More information/citation:
Capinha C, Ceia-Hasse A, de-Miguel S, Vila-Viçosa C, Porto M, Jarić I, Tiago P, Fernandez N, Valdez J, McCallum I, Pereira HM. (2024) Using citizen science data for predicting the timing of ecological phenomena across regions. BioScience. https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biae041
Capinha C, Monteiro AT, Ceia-Hasse A (2024) Supporting early detection of biological invasions through short-term spatial forecasts of detectability. NeoBiota 96: 191-210 https://doi.org/10.3897/neobiota.96.129547
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