Medusa of freshwater jellyfish (Craspedacusta sowerbii) in Europe – 9 days forecast

Today and coming two days

In 4 to 6 days

In 7 to 9 days

Technical description

Forecasted event: Probability of Occurrence of Medusae for the Freshwater Jellyfish Craspedacusta sowerbii.

Forecast region: European Continent. Grey areas are expected to be unsuitable to the establishment of the species or imply a high level of uncertainty in the predictions.

Context: The freshwater jellyfish Craspedacusta sowerbii has established in various regions worldwide, including Europe. However, the non-native distribution of the species remains poorly known, mainly due to the fact that the most visible part of its life cycle involves small medusae that only appear for a few months each year. To address this knowledge gap, our models forecast the probability of medusae occurrence for this species based on preceding environmental conditions, including temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and snow accumulation. These forecasts can guide the timing of actions aimed at identifying potential occurrence areas, even in regions or countries where the species has not yet been detected.

More information and citation:
Capinha C, Ceia-Hasse A, de-Miguel S, Vila-Viçosa C, Porto M, Jarić I, Tiago P, Fernandez N, Valdez J, McCallum I, Pereira HM. (2024) Using citizen science data for predicting the timing of ecological phenomena across regions. BioScience. https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biae041

Capinha C, Monteiro AT, Ceia-Hasse A (2024) Supporting early detection of biological invasions through short-term spatial forecasts of detectability. : 2024.06.12.598508. BiorXiv (preprint) https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.06.12.598508

TERMS OF USE: Nature Forecast products are provided on an “as is” basis. They are research-driven results without any warranties regarding their accuracy. Neither Nature Forecast nor any members of the Nature Forecast initiative bear responsibility for any direct, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages or losses that may result from the use of these products.