Adult stage of the Geranium bronze butterfly (Cacyreus marshalli) in Europe – 9 days forecast

Today and coming two days

In 4 to 6 days

In 7 to 9 days

Technical description

Forecasted event: Probability of occurrence of Geranium bronze butterflies in adult stage.

Forecast region: European Continent. Grey areas are expected to be unsuitable to the establishment of the species or imply a high level of uncertainty in the predictions.

Context: Forecasts of the probability of butterflies of the species based on preceding environmental conditions, including temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and snow accumulation. These forecasts can guide the timing of actions aimed at identifying potential occurrence areas, even in regions or countries where the species has not yet been detected.

More information/citation:
Capinha C, Ceia-Hasse A, de-Miguel S, Vila-Viçosa C, Porto M, Jarić I, Tiago P, Fernandez N, Valdez J, McCallum I, Pereira HM. (2024) Using citizen science data for predicting the timing of ecological phenomena across regions. BioScience. https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biae041

Capinha C, Monteiro AT, Ceia-Hasse A (2024) Supporting early detection of biological invasions through short-term spatial forecasts of detectability. : 2024.06.12.598508. BiorXiv (preprint) https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.06.12.598508

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